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By GIAN M. VOLPICELLI
Tips, tales, traumas to @Gmvolpi or influence@politico.eu | View in your browser
HULLO COMPADRES. The owner of this space, Elisa Braun, had to take some time off, so I was drafted in. This is Gian Volpicelli, EU Influence’s supply writer extraordinaire. Apart from playing the tin whistle, my usual bailiwick is covering technology, especially Artificial Intelligence, so don’t @ me if you feel this edition is a tad more digitally tinged than usual. After all, Influence is about power, and technology is just that.
ELECTION AFTERSHOCK. POLITICO’s newsroom is still recovering after our peerless European Parliament election night coverage. (Luckily the powers-that-be fed us pizza and croissants). As for the Brussels bubble at large, it is trying to make sense of what the election results actually mean. While the coalition of Christian democrats, socialists and liberals underpinning the von der Leyen Commission retains a majority, the bolstered 58-seat front of lawmakers from the far-right — let alone its potential rise to power in France, courtesy of a snap election — cannot be ignored. Hence, every single lobbyist, consultant and chinstroker is wondering: How does one talk to these people? “Nobody feels comfortable engaging with far-right parties, who might be extremists,” a lobbyist from a major tech trade group, granted anonymity to discuss the matter, told Influence.
Meta question: Will one have to talk to these people? Will they be in charge of files, negotiations, etc? “It all depends on whether the new leadership of the Parliament assigns top positions to these people, who might force lobbyists to engage with questionable characters,” the lobbyist added.
Caveat: The above only applies to MEPs from the far-right proper, that is the ID group. The hard-right ECR has apparently been grandfathered in among the Parliament’s general lurch to the right, so expect a lot of cordial interactions between Brussels bubblers and Giorgia Meloni’s allies. Times are indeed a-changin’.
Catering to the other side: Influence understands that X-based controversialist (and lobbyist) Connor Allen is writing a “guide to engage with lobbyists” for newly elected MEPs. Lawmakers (including ID ones) will find it in The Parliament magazine soon.
THE PRICE OF A SEAT
CRUNCHING THE NUMBERS: Reader, we have the final-final figures on how much each European political grouping spent to buy election ads on Meta’s social media platforms Facebook and Instagram. Using data from Whotargetsme, we looked at the period between Jan 1 and June 2.
… and the winners are: On Meta platforms, national parties running under the aegis of the center-right European People’s Party Group spent the most, that is €1,275,423 distributed over 124 pages. The runner-up, one smidgen below at €1,220,364, was the nonaligned grouping — whose biggest spender is, however, a very well-known entity: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party. The Greens (€1,128,247) and the far-right ID (€941,790) groupings got third and fourth place respectively.
Different prices for different people: Let’s do something silly, shall we? If we divide the amount of money the EPP Group spent on Meta by the number of lawmakers it got elected (186), it turns out that each MEP set it back €6,857. If we do the same for the ID group, the price tag per lawmaker is €16,237 (but in fairness, ID and EPP grew their parliamentary presence by similar percentages, 9-10 percent).
The skinny: We asked our stellar data team to plot all the info together on a nice graph. Have fun checking who got good value for their Meta money.
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DEPT. OF FAKE FACES
AI RISK: Trust me if I tell you that ahead of the election, Artificial Intelligence easily took the biscuit as the top supposed threat to democracy and integrity. People got their knickers in a twist about the risk that ruthless politicians and foreign actors galore might wield AI tools such as DALL-E or Midjourney to generate fabricated images of politicians or events (called “deepfakes”) in order to sow falsehood, disinformation and discord. European Commission Vice President for Values Věra Jourová even sponsored a pledge by which all European parties swore off unlabeled deepfakes.
Not with a bang: No catastrophe-level AI-fuelled event took place. But that is not to say political parties have stayed away from AI. One just needs to check Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders’ X feed to see some suspicious images of smiling families and sunlit uplands bearing all the hallmarks of AI generation (misshapen teeth, deformed hands). Far-right leader Matteo Salvini, from Italy’s League, has also been accused of using AI to generate an ad featuring the image of a pregnant trans man, whom Salvini deemed a result of too much EU policy.
ID hearts AI: A recent review by DFRLab found that Wilders and Salvini weren’t alone. Indeed, DFR found their political grouping, ID, resorted to generative AI to forge a lot of images used in campaign material, starting as early as last autumn.
Not what was agreed: Neither Wilders, Salvini nor the ID group labeled their images as AI-generated. That goes against the Jourová-backed pledge ID adhered to.
Gian’s take, part 1: While that is ethically iffy, I’d argue that this is not a disaster. The really pernicious deepfakes are convincing, synthetic images of existing people doing things they didn’t do — which could be easily weaponized. The images we have seen from the ID brigade are bog-standard leaflet fare — one user on X compared Wilders’ image to “a photo from the Jehovah’s Witnesses’ Watchtower [magazine]” — only done more cheaply, without photographers or illustrators (the creative sector is hardly a reservoir of far-right votes). One thing is for sure, however: politicians are starting to play around with AI. Things might indeed go south in the near future.
Gian’s take, part 2: The most imminent risk coming from the explosion in AI-generated imagery and media is not necessarily people believing in what deepfakes portray, but their dismissal of everything as a deepfake. A recent example was analyzed here.
Now read this: Meta has published a long blog post defending its choice to mine its EU users’ data to train its Artificial Intelligence model, saying that this is just to ensure that its AI speaks the languages and understands the cultures of European countries. This follows a fuss data protection enfant terrible Max Schrems kicked up as soon as Meta’s plans became known.
NOT A DEEPFAKE (SADLY)
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INFLUENCE CONGRATZ
THEY’RE IN: You’ll be pleased to know that both Meta’s top Brussels-based lobbyist Aura Salla and Meta’s product counsel Dóra Dávid have won seats in the European Parliament. We cannot help celebrating the successful lobbyist-to-politico jump.
ELECTORAL COMMISSION: A little bird handed Influence a letter they received just ahead of election day. The envelope features the European Commission’s logo and pre-paid stamping, but contains campaign material from Italian center-right candidate Antonio Cenini, entreating Italians in Brussels to flock to the consulate to cast their ballots for him.
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The recipient’s name has been hidden for confidentiality reasons. |
Right of reply: The Commission seemed stumped by Influence’s questions on why on earth a wannabe MEP’s leaflets were sent around using Commission stamps. Cenini himself said he had nothing to do with the letter, and chalked up the incident to an overzealous friend. “I didn’t know about this, I am astonished,” Cenini told Influence on the phone. “I disapprove of it. I know, however, that my many friends in Brussels were trying to help me, so maybe that’s what happened.”
Sad trombone: Cenini was not elected.
UPDATE: Wednesday evening, shortly after this newsletter had been sent to Pro subscribers, Cenini got in touch again. He had just come back from Italy to Brussels, where he lives, and — surprise — he had himself found one of the Commission-stamped letters in his mailbox; he shared a picture confirming his account. The plot has thickened.
**It's happening next week – POLITICO's Financial Regulation Reporter Kathryn Carlson will run a panel discussion with four experts to debate the Commission's CMU agenda, the role of non-banks and new legislation. Sign up now to tune in live on June 19!**
HUNGARY IN NUMBERS
NO PAPRIKA: Influence joined a bunch of journos at the Hungarian perm rep on Tuesday evening to get acquainted with the incoming Council Presidency. Snacks were plentiful and included salmon, ham, and artichoke quiches, and chevre-and-tomato and foie gras amuse-bouche.
Cuddly bunch: Many Brussels lifers have the same dilemmas about the incoming presidency — what with Viktor Orban’s embrace of illiberal democracy — as they have about the incoming crop of ID lawmakers. The difference is that Hungary will start its mandate in July and steer the Council ship through what many see as a transition period. In other words: you can totally get away with not engaging with them. Still, the Hungarian team was hell-bent on presenting reporters with a friendly, almost wholesome face, and being perfect hosts. “We count on your cooperation,” the Hungarian ambassador said in a short speech to reporters. Right.
You’ll deal with us: The ambassador underlined that the friendly civil servants we shook hands with at the event would be chairing some two-thirds of the meetings held by the presidency. (Meaning: lobbyists and policymakers won’t have to engage with dyed-in-the-wool Orbanites).
Speaking of meetings: There’ll be 37 Council meetings and some 1,500 working party and coreper meetings. Transitional it may be, but this presidency will certainly not be bereft of meetings.
INFLUENCERS
ACADEMIA
— Michael Kaeding will take over as the director of the political studies department at the postgraduate College of Europe in Bruges. He replaces Olivier Costa, who was sacked after allegations of sexual harassment, as we reported in March.
— Andrea Minuto Rizzo, head of EU affairs for Italy’s railway giant Ferrovie dello Stato, is taking over as leader of LAN Brussels, the alumni association of Italy’s LUISS university.
CIVIL SOCIETY
— Maya Doneva starts as coordinator coalition “Brussels’ call” at European Women’s Lobby. She was previously with TexCycle.
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
— Ursula von der Leyen’s right-hand man Björn Seibert returned to his job as her head of Cabinet after running her campaign as a Spitzenkandidat.
— Alexander Winterstein, von der Leyen’s spokesperson on the campaign, returns to his relatively new job as the Commission’s director of political communications.
— Dragoș Tudorache, a Romanian liberal MEP who spearheaded the EU’s AI Act and didn’t run for re-election, will join the Commission’s “AI Office” (a body created by the AI Act itself) as head of the A3 unit for AI model safety, two sources with knowledge of the appointment told Influence.
— Roberto Viola, currently the boss of the Commission’s digital unit DG CONNECT, will stay on for at least another year after being granted an extension, two sources with direct knowledge of the fact told Influence.
CONSULTING & COMMS
— András Baneth, a long-time Brussels guru on all things public affairs and Commission hiring, started as partner and senior adviser at The Right Street after selling his SpeakerHub platform.
— Global advisory firm APCO is expanding to Kyiv, Ukraine, where it will be led by Sonya Soutus. She was previously with the Centre for a European Future.
— Josef Lentsch, formerly of the Innovation in Politics Institute, has launched the Political Tech Summit.
DEFENSE
— Linda Sztankovics started as defense counselor at the Swedish permanent representation to NATO. She was previously with the Swedish Defense Ministry in Stockholm.
FINANCIAL SERVICES
— Ireland’s Sharon Donnery, Portugal’s Pedro Machado, and France’s Patrick Montagner have been appointed to the European Central Bank’s supervisory board for a five-year term.
— Jack Roe joined the UK Mission to the EU as first secretary, financial services. He was previously with the Bank of England.
HEALTH CARE
— Giedre Kvedaraviciene is returning to the European Coordination Committee of the Radiological, Electromedical and Healthcare IT Industry (COCIR) as director of strategy and innovation, after taking time off to complete her PhD on a Fulbright scholarship in the U.S.
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
— Leonie Westhof has started as junior labor market economist at the OECD, joining from CEPS (Centre for European Policy Studies).
THINK TANKS
— Laurence Boone, former French secretary of state for Europe, is a “distinguished visiting fellow” at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
— Nicu Popescu, former Moldovan foreign minister, becomes a “distinguished policy fellow” at ECFR.
TECH
— Google’s EMEA communications manager Karl Ryan has left Brussels to join the tech giant’s trust and safety comms team in New York City.
— Riccardo Masucci has been promoted to head of the Brussels office at Intel.
Special thanks to: Elisa Braun, Sarah Wheaton, Natália Delgado and Paul Dallison.
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